FICKLE

I didn't think I'd be writing again so soon.  But with Hurricane Danny bearing down towards the British Virgin Islands (BVI), Azure Wind is on our minds.  It reminds me of the fickle nature of the winds.  Two days ago, the forecasts called for a storm path that would pass south of the BVI and Puerto Rico, and by the time it reached this eastern part of the Caribbean, Danny was looking to be downgraded to a tropical wave.  This morning, the eye of this LEVEL 3 (!) HURRICANE looks to pass right over Anegada, 25 miles north of Tortola, where our boat is moored.

If a hurricane must go by, it's best to be on the south side of it (in this hemisphere).  In our case, that means the wind will circle around to the west.  The boat will spin on its mooring and face toward the land, rather than the reef.

                                            Azure Wind, on the mooring ball in East Tortola

I remember in 2005, Hurricane Rita passed to the east of our boat, laying just off Clear Lake and Galveston Bay.  Rather than pushing more water from the gulf into the bay and then the lake and finally the marina - which would have raised the boats and a huge ruckus - the winds did the opposite. Rita pushed the water out of the bay into the gulf, which lowered Clear Lake and lowered the waters in the marina.  Our boat sat on the mud for several hours and then was gently lifted back up.

No chance of that happening to Azure Wind on Monday.  If the boat touches the sand, we're sunk!  Best hope is to ride the waves...and...because the boat lies close to shore, the winds won't have much water to churn.  We'll be good if the mooring lines hold and we don't get sent into the reef!

Best scenario: Danny has two and a half days to keep moving to the north!  Hope it does.  Maybe it will turn north, by-pass the BVI, the Bahamas and head out to sea.

Fickle are the winds which makes it hard to predict.  Fickle are the thoughts that keep moving back and forth between various scenarios.  Stay tuned:  Monday night between 8 and midnight are the projected hours for this storm's passing.

FOOTNOTE (Aug 24):  So, Danny has stayed to the south, and is dissipating into that tropical wave.   Danny will give our boat a fresh water wash - not bad.